Q3 2022 Northern California Real Estate Market Update

Q3 2022 Northern California Real Estate Market Update

The subsequent evaluation of decide on counties of the Northern California true estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information and facts may guide you with producing greater-educated serious estate choices. For even more facts about the housing market place in your area, you should never wait to speak to your Windermere Actual Estate agent.


Regional Economic Overview

In excess of the earlier year, the Northern California marketplaces included by this report added 159,000 careers. Specified these solid work gains, it was no surprise that the unemployment level fell from 5.6% to 2.9%. By county, the most affordable jobless rate was in Santa Clara County (2.3%) and the maximum amount was in Shasta County at 4.3%. The labor drive carries on to expand, which is a positive signal of the relative strength of the economic system in Northern California. The region is only 17,000 work opportunities quick of its pre-pandemic peak work.

Northern California Household Profits

In the 3rd quarter of this 12 months, 11,454 residences marketed, which is down 32.5% from a year back and down 19.5% from the 2nd quarter.

12 months above yr, revenue fell throughout the board. Nevertheless the biggest drop was in Santa Clara County, there have been sizeable declines throughout the area.

The number of households for sale continues to increase, with complete normal listings in the quarter up 29.2% from a yr back. There were 25.5% much more houses for sale than in the second quarter.

Pending household sales fell 16.6% from the 2nd quarter, suggesting that the market softened throughout the late summertime months.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Northern California from Q3 2021 to Q3 2022. All counties have a negative percentage year-over-year change. Shasta County tops the list at -21.8%, followed by San Luis Obispo at -28.7%, Solano -30.1%, Placer -31.7%, Contra Costa -31.8%, Alameda -32%, Napa -32.9%, and Santa Clara at -35.7%.

Northern California Household Rates

The sizeable increase in mortgage loan prices has started off to effect household prices. The normal property sale cost dropped .5% from a calendar year in the past and 12.6% from the second quarter of 2022.

Median listing rates rose 1.6% from the 2nd quarter, but the boost was not popular. Although asking rates jumped 18.8% in San Luis Obispo County and rose modestly in Napa and Shasta counties, this was offset by decreased asking prices in the harmony of the marketplaces.

Costs rose in 5 of the counties contained in this report, when they fell in a few. Compared to the second quarter of 2022, charges fell throughout the board, with double-digit drops in Alameda, Contra Costa, and Napa counties.

Financing costs are negatively impacting dwelling price ranges, which I anticipate will continue by the equilibrium of the 12 months and into 2023.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Northern California. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Shasta, Contra Costa, and Alameda County are in the -1.5% to -0.9% range. Napa, Solano, and Santa Clara County have a percentage change in the 1% to 3.4% range, Placer is in the 3.5% to 5.9% range, and San Luis Obispo is in the 8.5%+ range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Northern California from Q3 2021 to Q3 2022. San Luis Obispo County tops the list at 9.9%, followed by Placer at 3.9%, Napa at 2.7%, Santa Clara at 1.3%, Solano at 1%, Shasta at -0.4%, Alameda at -1%, and Contra Costa at -1.3%.

House loan Rates

This remains an unsure period for property finance loan charges. When the Federal Reserve slowed bond buys in 2013, buyers have been accused of owning a “taper tantrum,” and we are viewing a comparable response now. The Fed seems to be material to observe the housing sector go via a interval of pain as they throw all their resources at cutting down inflation.

As a end result, property finance loan prices are out of sync with treasury yields, which not only proceeds to press prices a lot bigger, but also generates violent swings in both instructions. My existing forecast calls for premiums to peak in the fourth quarter of this yr in advance of setting up to slowly and gradually pull back. That said, they will remain in the 6% vary till the end of 2023.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q4 2023. After the 5.62% figure in Q3 2022, he forecasts mortgage rates continuing to climb to 6.7% in Q4 2022, 6.55% in Q1 2023, 6.35% in Q2 2023, 6.15% in Q3 2023, and 5.60% in Q4 2023.

Northern California Days on Market

The typical time it took to sell a house in the Northern California counties in this report was 7 days better than it was in the third quarter of 2021.

The length of time it took to sell a house fell in Napa County but rose across the relaxation of the location. In comparison to the 2nd quarter of 2022, sector time rose across all counties other than Placer, the place it fell 4 times.

All through the third quarter, it took an common of 35 days to offer a household, which was 9 additional days than in the second quarter of this year.

The mixture of extra selection and incredibly cautious buyers has led industry time to raise.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Northern California for Q3 2022. Alameda County has the lowest DOM at 23, followed by Santa Clara and Contra Costa at 24, San Luis Obispo at 26, Placer at 28, Solano at 36, Napa at 46, and Shasta at 79.


This speedometer demonstrates the point out of the region’s authentic estate market place employing housing inventory, price tag gains, residence gross sales, fascination prices, and much larger economic factors.

Considerably increased funding prices in live performance with very small affordability degrees are now impacting the region’s housing marketplace. Though there may be some discomfort as the industry continues to revert to a standard pace of value progress and gross sales activity, I am not overly involved about the long-phrase outlook. Dwelling values are correcting, but the adjustment will not be significant, and absolutely almost nothing like the plummet we observed subsequent the bursting of the housing bubble.

A speedometer graph indicating a balanced market, slightly headed toward a seller's market in Northern California in Q3 2022.

I feel there are more customers than most people today might assume who are waiting for price ranges to suitable and, a lot more importantly, for mortgage rates to stabilize. When the market place is firmly in a time period of transition, it however is not a conventional buyer’s current market. That claimed, it is also not one that provides sellers all the command. As these, I am shifting the needle far more in favor of purchasers, but not so considerably as to counsel that the tide has fully turned.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Main Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic facts and its effect on the true estate marketplace on both equally a local and countrywide degree. Matthew has around 30 a long time of expert practical experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his working day-to-day obligations, Matthew sits on the Washington Point out Governors Council of Economic Advisors chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Centre for Actual Estate Analysis at the University of Washington and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Heart for True Estate Scientific tests at the University of Washington the place he also lectures in genuine estate economics.

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